Supply Chain Resilience in Australia: Navigating Global Trade Tensions in 2025
Why Supply Chain Resilience Matters for Australia
Global trade tensions are escalating, and Australia’s supply chains are on the frontline. As of March 2025, the nation’s volatile relationships with the United States and China—combined with tariffs, geopolitical rivalries, and a global shift towards self-reliance—threaten economic stability and national security. For Australian Government agencies responsible for supply chain resilience, the challenge is urgent: how do we protect critical sectors like minerals, energy, agriculture, and pharmaceuticals in this unpredictable environment?
At Trace Consultants, we specialise in helping Australian governments tackle these complexities. This article explores the supply chains the Australian Government should prioritise, the risks they face, and actionable strategies to build resilience. We’ll also detail how Trace Consultants can support your agency with tailored, data-driven solutions—because in a world of disruption, preparation is power.

The Global Trade Landscape: A Perfect Storm for Australian Supply Chains
Understanding the U.S.-China Dynamic
Australia’s economy is export-driven, with trade accounting for over 20% of GDP in 2023-24. China buys 34% of our goods—iron ore, coal, LNG—while the U.S. anchors defence and tech partnerships. But U.S.-China trade tensions, potentially intensified by a 10-20% universal tariff under a Trump administration, are reshaping global supply chains. China’s past economic coercion, like the 2020 wine tariffs, underscores the risks. For Australia, this isn’t just about trade—it’s about ensuring critical goods flow and export revenues hold.
Implications for Australian Government Agencies
Disruptions from tariffs, trade wars, or geopolitical spats could spike inflation, halt imports, or erode export markets. Government agencies must act now to safeguard supply chains, balancing economic reliance on China with strategic alignment to the U.S. Let’s examine the key areas under threat.
Key Supply Chains Under Pressure
Critical Minerals – Powering Australia’s Future
Why It’s Critical
Australia is a global leader in critical minerals—rare earths, lithium, cobalt—essential for batteries, renewables, and defence technology. We’re the world’s second-largest lithium producer and a top rare earths supplier. But China processes 70-90% of these minerals, creating a choke point. If China restricts exports or U.S. tariffs disrupt global markets, Australia’s raw exports could lose value fast.
Risks to Watch
U.S. “friendshoring” via AUKUS pressures Australia to align supply chains, risking China ties—China buys 84% of our iron ore. Past Chinese export curbs (e.g., rare earths to Japan, 2010) show the danger. Agencies need to rethink processing and markets.
Government Action Points
The Australian Government should map processing dependencies, explore domestic refining or allied partnerships (e.g., Japan), and secure Indo-Pacific buyers through RCEP.
Iron Ore and Steel – Australia’s Economic Bedrock
Why It’s Critical
Iron ore, valued at US$85.4 billion in 2023, is Australia’s top export, with China purchasing 84%. It’s a trade surplus cornerstone, but highly exposed to external shocks.
Risks to Watch
U.S. tariffs on Chinese steel could shrink China’s demand, while Beijing’s coal ban precedent (2020) highlights its willingness to retaliate. A U.S.-China trade war might flood markets with redirected exports, crashing prices.
Government Action Points
Diversifying to India and Southeast Asia, boosting local steel production, and preparing for price volatility are key steps for resilience.
Energy Exports – Fuelling Australia’s Growth
Why It’s Critical
Coal, LNG, and petroleum gas exports drive Australia’s economy, with China taking 30% of petroleum gas and Japan a major LNG buyer. These flows fund growth, but domestic energy security matters too as renewables expand.
Risks to Watch
China can pivot suppliers (e.g., coal to Indonesia), and U.S. energy protectionism could depress prices. Trade tensions might also strain domestic supply chains.
Government Action Points
Locking in allied energy trade (e.g., Japan), assessing LNG stockpiles, and modelling price shocks are critical moves.
Agriculture – Feeding Asia, Facing Retaliation
Why It’s Critical
Wine, barley, beef, and lobster define Australia’s agricultural exports. China’s 200% wine tariffs (2020-2024) cost billions, though we found new buyers like the Middle East. It’s a resilient sector, but still vulnerable.
Risks to Watch
U.S. tariffs could cut Chinese consumer demand, while Trump-era tariffs might hit U.S. exports like beef. New markets often pay less than China’s premium rates.
Government Action Points
Targeting Southeast Asia and the UK, negotiating U.S. tariff exemptions, and enhancing cold chain logistics can bolster resilience.
Semiconductors and Tech – Australia’s Import Challenge
Why It’s Critical
Australia relies on imported semiconductors—China makes components, the U.S. designs chips—for defence, manufacturing, and consumer goods. No domestic production leaves us exposed.
Risks to Watch
The U.S.-China tech war (export controls, tariffs) risks shortages. Australia’s Huawei ban aligned us with the U.S., but didn’t secure supply. Costs could soar.
Government Action Points
Partnering with Quad nations, investing in local R&D, and stockpiling critical tech are essential steps.
Pharmaceuticals – Lessons from a Pandemic
Why It’s Critical
COVID-19 exposed Australia’s reliance on imported pharmaceuticals, with China dominating active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). Trade disruptions could cripple supply.
Risks to Watch
Chinese export limits or U.S. protectionism could cut access. Shortages in crises remain a real threat.
Government Action Points
Incentivising local API production, securing deals with India or the EU, and expanding medical reserves are priorities.
Strategic Imperatives for Australian Resilience
Balancing Risks and Opportunities
Australia’s 4% GDP trade surplus with China is a strength and a liability. The U.S. alliance offers security but tariff risks. Global trends—reshoring, tariffs, friendshoring—mean higher costs and tighter supply. The Australian Government must audit vulnerabilities, diversify partners, build local capacity, and leverage alliances like AUKUS and CPTPP.
How Trace Consultants Can Help Australian Government Agencies
At Trace Consultants, we deliver practical, data-driven solutions to strengthen Australia’s supply chains. Our expertise empowers government agencies with the tools to navigate global trade tensions. Here’s how we can assist in detail:
N-Tier Supply Chain Analysis
We go beyond tier-one suppliers, mapping your entire supply chain to uncover hidden risks. Using advanced analytics, we pinpoint dependencies—Chinese mineral processing, semiconductor imports—and highlight choke points across sectors like energy and agriculture.
This deep visibility helps you prioritise interventions, ensuring no vulnerability is overlooked. For example, we can reveal how a tech component shortage cascades through defence supply chains, giving you a clear action plan.
Scenario Modelling and Risk Forecasting
Our scenario modelling simulates real-world disruptions—20% U.S. tariffs, Chinese iron ore bans, pharmaceutical supply cuts. We quantify impacts on revenue, costs, and availability, providing forecasts you can trust.
This lets you prepare for the worst. We might model a 30% drop in iron ore prices, showing how to offset losses with new markets, or assess pharmaceutical stockpiles needed for a six-month trade blockade.
Alternative Supply Options and Channel Analysis
We identify and evaluate alternative suppliers and markets—India for iron ore, Japan for tech components. Our channel analysis weighs cost, reliability, and geopolitical factors, ensuring diversification is viable and sustainable.
For instance, we could help shift LNG exports to Southeast Asia, analysing shipping costs and buyer stability, or find premium agricultural markets to replace China’s high tariffs.
Strategic Diversification and Market Entry Support
We craft diversification strategies, from negotiating trade agreements to entering new markets. Aligning with RCEP or CPTPP, we secure access to stable partners while reducing reliance on volatile players.
This might mean locking in Indo-Pacific mineral buyers or opening doors for Australian beef in ASEAN—practical steps backed by our trade expertise.
Resilience Planning and Capacity Building
We design resilience blueprints—feasibility studies for domestic mineral refining, stockpile strategies for tech and pharmaceuticals, and plans to boost local manufacturing. We also train your team to monitor and adapt to global shifts.
Imagine assessing rare earth processing in Australia or building a six-month medical reserve—our plans make it actionable, while our training ensures your staff can respond to tariff-driven disruptions.
Policy Alignment and Advocacy
We align your strategies with AUKUS, the Quad, and trade pacts, advocating for Australia’s interests globally. Whether it’s securing U.S. tariff exemptions for agriculture or positioning Australia as a critical minerals hub, we amplify your voice.
Our hands-on approach turns risks into resilience. Contact us to see how our N-tier analysis, scenario modelling, and channel strategies can protect Australia’s supply chains.
A Resilient Future for Australia
U.S.-China tensions, tariff threats, and global uncertainty are here to stay. But by focusing on critical minerals, iron ore, energy, agriculture, tech, and pharmaceuticals, the Australian Government can build a resilient future. Trace Consultants is your partner in this mission.
Reach out today to explore how we can strengthen your supply chains with practical, proven solutions. In a shifting world, resilience is Australia’s edge.